next, we have the chicago white sox. last season proved that it is pitching that wins the world series. that is because despite an offense that put up way better numbers in regards to batting average, runs, and homers than those produced by the 2005 world series champs, they did not even make the playoffs this past season. they still won 90 games, but 53 of those wins came before the all star break. i saw where annoying manager ozzie guillen contributed it to a drop in production of lead off man scott posednik, along with drop offs of SS juan uribe and 2B tadahito iguchi. the article made no mention how brian anderson, the man who replaced aaron rowand in center field after he was traded for jim thome, had an awful year. but thome had an awesome year, as did jermaine dye and paul konerko. i believe that the white sox fall was a product of their pitching. in 2005, their five starters were unbelievable, especially in the playoffs. maybe it was fatigue, but no starter from '05 replicated their success in '06. this includes orlando hernandez, even though he was traded to az (then to the mets) for javier vazquez.

so, what were the drop offs like? let me tell you.

first of all, their is top lefty mark buehrle. their staff ace had a big drop off. check out his stats:

2005: 236-2/3 IP / 240 H / 40 BB / 149 K's / 20 HR / 3.12 ERA
2006: 204.0 IP / 247 H / 48 BB / 98 K's / 36 HR / 4.99 ERA

he got worse in every possible category. his ERA jumped almost 2 full runs. fewer IP's, yet more hits, walks and home runs allowed. mark never has been a dominating pitcher, just one who never allowed many runs. the big question, will he rebound in '07? was it just fatigue? or is the league finally catching up with him. playing in such a tough division may be taking its toll on him. that is my theory anyway. fatigue had to be a part of it though, thus i believe his 2007 stats will fall somewhere in between the two extremes. i envision 220 IP / 240 H / 50 BB / 110K's / 32 HR / 4.08 ERA. but i feel the fall off in mark's production is the biggest reason for thew white sox failure to make the playoffs. but to have such a bad second half, obviously some other pitchers are to blame, and they were.

let's also look at freddy garcia. he won three more games, but that was the only stat that improved from '05 to '06.

2005: 228.0 IP / 225 H / 60 BB / 146 K's / 26 HR / 3.87 ERA
2006: 216-2/3 IP / 228 H / 48 BB / 135 K's / 32 HR / 4.53 ERA

it is weird. nothing screams out as way worse except for the most important stat, ERA. he actually had better control. but it is not important, because he is now gone. traded to philly for failed prospect gavin floyd and one time white sox prospect gio gonzalez, who was also part of the aforementioned jim thome trade.

another 'disappointment' was jose contreras.

2005: 15-7 / 204-2/3 IP / 177H / 75 BB / 154 K's / 23 HR / 3.61 ERA
2006: 13-9 / 194.0 IP / 194 H / 55 BB / 134 K's / 20 HR / 4.27 ERA

once again, ERA was the stat the ballooned the most. the hit rate was worse, but his control did get better. his home run rate was essentially unchanged, especially when compared to the increases in the rates of mark and freddy.

lastly, there was 2005 surprise jon garland. because of a late season charge, he had the same amount of wins (18). but as with everyone else from '05, he did not have that magical season.

2005: 221.0 IP / 212 H / 47 BB / 115 K's / 26 HR / 3.50ERA
2006: 211-1/3 IP / 247 H / 41 BB / 112 K's / 26 HR / 4.51 ERA

as with the others, jon's ERA suffered the worst drop numbers wise.

then there was javier vazquez. when he was with montreal, he was considered one of the elite pichers in all of baseball. then he was traded to the yankees. he has never been the same since. he did have a good year in his only year in az in '05. he often showed glimpses of his old, dominating form last year. a typical game seemed to be that he would dominate through most of his outings, but have one or two bad innings that were his undoing. he put up solid numbers, when compared to a regular #5 starter. but he used to be a number one starter, and the white sox were expecting way better than average production. this is what they recieved from javier.

2006: 11-12 / 202-2/3 IP / 206 H / 56 BB / 184 K's / 23 HR / 4.84 ERA.

so, now that garcia is in philly, and stand out brandon mccarthy is in texas, vazquez is now the #4 starter and the #5 spot belongs to either floyd or a rookie knuckleballer charlie haeger, who had a great year in the minors.

the pen also had a fall off in production. the set up mostly were to blaim, as bobby jenks had a good year as closer and did not succumb to a sophomore slump. for this season, they traded utility 1B ross gload to kc for power arm andrew sisco. they also traded neal cotts to their cross town rivals for david aardsma. they obtained mike mcdougal from kc mid season last year. lefty matt thorton was very productive. but can a bullpen compromised of two ex kc relievers expect to be that good? if macdougal can stay healthy and sicso learns control, they will be.

and the offense will be fine also. jim will hit his bombs, as will konerko. i find it hard to believe that dye will hit like he did last year when he made the all star team and finished the year with 44 HR's, two more than thome. uribe, who battled some legal problems in the off season, should have a better year, as should posednik. and if brian anderson gets off to a slow start or has a bad spring, in may step rookie prospect ryan sweeney. or they may find a way to sneak another top prospect, josh fields, into the line up. regardless, the white sox were the only team to have every regular hit at least 20 or more doubles. despite all of these players returning, C/DH toby hall and OF/1B and all around tough dude darin erstad were added. last i heard, posednik will not be ready for the start of the '07 season, and this partly was why erstad was added. erstad back in the day was a stud hitting machine. last year with the angels, erstad only had 95 AB's and batted .221. hopefully when the indians are playing the white sox, we will not be viewing the ghost of grady sizemore's future in darin. grady exhibits the same all out, wall banging, diving around style that was a trademark of darin in his heyday.

so, what does all this mean? it means the white sox win total will once again fall. probably not by much. 85-89 wins seems feasible. but in this tough divison, it will probably only get them third place, and another year at home watching the playoffs.