what have the others done?

i think the tribe can compete in '07. a big reason why, no other team in our tough division has done as much to improve themselves. ok, except for the royals which coincidentally i would pick as the team that improved itself the second best, all are pretty good teams. but the white sox and especially the twins have only seemed to get weaker, while the tigers have only modestly improved themselves.

i will start with the division winners of last year, those always pesky minnesota twins. the twins got hot like no other down the stretch to take the division on the last day of the season. they were helped by the late season collapse of the tigers of course, but regardless, they are the reigning champs.

a big reason for their surge will not be around next year. fransisco liriano, the devastating lefty, will start throwing off the mound in october of '07, best case scenario. tommy john surgery will do that to you. another big blow to their usually always strong starting pitching: brad radke has retired. brad was a quality starting pitcher who could almost always be counted on for a minimum of 12 wins and over 200 IP's. for his 12 years of service, he started 377 (of 378) games and compiled 148 wins. to replace him, the twins signed ramon ortiz, the owner of a 5.57 ERA in 33 games with the washington nationals last year. his career ERA is 4.85. he gave up 31 home runs, 15 at RFK, 16 on the road. his ERA at RFK was 5.54, his away ERA was 5.61. rights hit .278 against him, lefties hit .316. he was consistent. consistently bad that is.

that is it. they did not sign anyone of significance whatsoever. of course, first baseman justin morneau won the AL MVP with his .312, 37 2B, 34 HR, 130 RBI masterpiece '06 season, and joe mauer was the first catcher to ever win the AL batting title with his .347 average. will they improve? that is a scary thought. the only knock on morneau is that despite not striking at an alarming rate (he had 93 last year in 592 AB's), he only walked 53 times. and joe may be susceptible to the injury bug, if his early career is an accurate indicator. and their best overall player, CF torii hunter, most likely will be playing his last season for the twinkies. he will be a free agent next year. the chances of the mid market twins, a team that was almost axed out of existence a couple of years back, signing him to a huge contract that he will surely garner elsewhere is about as remote as the chances that carmen electra will rebound with me after leaving being dumped by that dude from the taco bell commercial. aside from their big three, no other hitter the twins have inspires fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers. they have a lot of scrappy and somewhat speedy dudes who usually play solid if not spectacular defense. rondell white was resigned. he is a good veteran, and a great hitter when healthy, to have around. but of all the AL central teams, i would have to say the twins O is the weakest.

back to the pitching. they still have lefty johan santana, the best pitcher in the majors, righty or lefty. the winner of the AL cy young two of the last three years. this dude is awesome! when he is on the mound, the indians are lucky if they score 3 runs, tops. he is the ultimate slump buster. the twins also have a lot of strong talent in the minors. some of the prized rooks recieved a taste of the bigs last year, which could be beneficial this year. the three that standout are scott baker, matt garza, and boof bonser. and the twins also possess one of the best closers in the game in joe nathan. he anchors a strong and mostly unchanged bullpen that also includes primary set up man juan rincon.

i also regard ron gardenhire as one of the better mangers in the league. the twins have enough talent to easily win 80 + games. they are almost always a dangerous team. when playing the twins, expect a low scoring, close game. the type of games i really do love! pitching and defense is their forte. but in this division, i do not believe they will be repeating as AL central champs. i believe there is enough talent throughout the division that they could feasibly end the '07 season with three other teams above them: the tribe, the tigers, and the white sox. hopefully in that order. by the time i get around to the chisox, i may have them finishing under the twins, now that i think about it. still, whether they finish third or fourth really is a moot point.

trot nixon?

hmmm. i was as shocked as i am guessing most were with this signing. but that tricky mark shapiro. after signing keith, he proclaimed that the indian's roster was set to go to spring training as is. trades and signings seemed finito. then enters trot.

trot is the owner of a lifetime .278 BA and .366 OBP with 133 HR, 523 BBI, 621 KO's and 454 BB's. despite hitting only.249 away from beantown in '06, his lifetime away average is .274. another lifetime stat, his BA against RHP is .292, against LHP is only .213. guess that tell us his role in '07 with the tribe. i guess that also means that the somewhat speedy shin-soo choo will be part of the buffalo bisons and not the tribe in '07. in a mere 28 plate appearances in the bigs, choo is a lifetime owner of a .200 BA against lefties. the thing is though, casey blake is only a .253 hitter against lefties, versus .263 against righties.

so, when a righty is on the mound and trot is starting in RF, i would assume he would be in the two hole with his LF buddy and fellow free agent signee david dellucci in the sixth spot. against lefties, jason michaels and case blake most likely would man the outfield corner spots with jason in the two hole of the line up. as for the rest of the lineup, well that will come later. for now, it is all about trot.

so, i do believe trot is an upgrade over shin-soo. trot has experience on his side. he even batted . 357 in the world series in '04. and shin-soo is definitely prone to the strike out. 45 KO's in 150 AB against righties. despite the tribe's offensive prowess, they did lead the AL in that dubious category with 1,204. trot is definitely an all out dude, which (hopefully is not an indicator of things to come with grady) is part of his downfall. his beat up body has been injured, a lot lately. coincidentally, his slugging percentage has slipped every year from a career high .578 in 449 AB's in '03 to .394 in '06. in between, he finished '04 with .510 and '05 with .446. can he rebound in '07? only time will tell. regardless, assuming he can stay healthy, i definitely feel trot is an improvement over shin-soo. and if he does get injured, well in steps shin-soo after all.

ok, it is too late for me to discuss the rest of the batting order and the bumping of RHP jeremy guthrie to make room for trot.

i wil continue somewhat. not too long ago i read a sweet article regarding u of a grad trevor crowe on the cleveland indians website. after reading this article about trevor, my appreciation of the additions of david dellucci and trot nixon, not to mention the signing of jason michaels to a two year extension , reached a new level. trevor's words seemed sincere. i do not believe trevor was just whistling some baseball cliche dixie tune. it seemed more an indicator of an attitude that seems destined for success. an attitude you just gotta love for a young, multi talented player seemingly destined for success in the bigs. ok, to take a step back for all those who do not know about trevor. in his rookie season in the minors in '05, he made it to AA Akron by the end of the season. that is very, very uncommon from a player who started just finished his college career the same year. he started the '06 season back down at A, but earned another AA call up at the end of the year. he most likely will start the '07 season at AAA with the bisons. given the talent of the tribe's young outfielders throughout, he could feasibly start back in AA just so he could receive everyday AB's. the word on the 'street' is that he could maybe / possibly / feasibly end '07 with the tribe. he is a switch hitting machine. not a consistent home run threat, but i guess he does have good gap power, from what i hear. his speed seems comparable, if not better than grady's. and his defense is pretty good too. once he (hopefully) sticks with the tribe, the plan is for him to be an everyday corner outfielder. i believe he holds some records at the u of a to boot. the ironic part, he sounds like a coco crisp-type player. the only (and it is a biggie) difference being trevor has shown much better adeptness at taking a walk. that and coco, despite his speed, has yet to develop in a baserunning threat, where trevor seems to utilize his talents much better in that aspect. ok, ok, the now much ballyhooed quote:

"Since the time I was 10 years old, I've always said that if you want to be a Major League baseball player, you have to beat out a Major Leaguer. And that's the way it works in this organization. If you're not confident enough to beat out the other Minor League guys, you'll never fulfill your potential in the Major Leagues. For me, if I take care of my business, prepare and play as well as I can every day, where I fit in in Cleveland will take care of itself."

did that pump you up, like it did me? i love all aspects of this. the quote was taken at case western reserve university btw, where the indians were holding their winter developmental program for minor leaguers, of which obviously trevor was a part of. more than anything, it tells me the indians ARE doing the right things. the moves they are making ARE improving both their major league roster, and improving the overall system at the same time. i think that sums things up pretty well, don't you?

alot has gone on in the good old hot stove since i last posted. the indians (thankfully) have been a part of free agent frenzy. and i am not talking about luis rivas and keith ginter, two infielders who recently signed minor league deals.

i am talking about the tribe signing keith foulke. i still have not heard any details about eric gagne. i did read an article in usa today's sports weekly that briefly mentioned eric choose the texas rangers over the tribe. oh well, that is his bad. now we have foulke. i do like the fact that we now have two options for the all-too-important closer role. management seems to be indicating that there will be a competition in spring training, but i have to believe foulke has the edge, and joe borowski will be the 8th inning set-up guy, the role that bob howry excelled in during the great yet disappointing (due to the collapse) 2005 season. foulke of course had a great 2004 season with the boston red sox.
in 83.0 innings pitched he struck out 79 batters and posted a 2.17 ERA while saving 32 games in 39 chances. he also got the last out in the world series that year against the cardinals. his best all around year was in 2003 for the oakland a's. he had a career high 43 saves in 48 chances while posting a 2.08 ERA. he had a very similar season numbers-wise with the (hated) white sox in 2001. for his career (1997 - 2006), he has 190 saves, blowing 35 opportunities. that equates to 84.4%. his lifetime ERA is 3.30.

in comparison, the man he is replacing (bob wickman) has 247 saves, 62 blown saves, an 80.0% success rate, and a 3.57 ERA lifetime (1992 - 2006). to bob's credit, alot of his blown saves were early in his closing days. with cleveland (from 2000 - 2006, less 2003 when he was injured for the entirety of the season), i calculated that he saved 139 games and blew 17 saves, good for a whopping 89.1% success rate.

so, the numbers are comparable. plus foulke has the intangible edge in regards to the whole world series ring thing, the being younger thing, and the not-scaring-you-to-death-despite-almost-always-notching-the-save-almost-every-time-he-takes-the-mound thing. if you have ever watched wicky pitch, you know what i am referring to. i am not too concerned about the injury thing. last season's injury is probably the only reason we have him now. keith actually wanted a one year contract with us. because of keith's injury, boston used jonathan papelbon as their closer to start the season. papelbon was unbelievably successful, and keith never could recapture his job, even after papelbon went down with a season ending injury. he did end the season on a strong note though, not allowing an earned run in his last 11 appearances (11-1/3 innings). he is just using us though. he wants to have another outstanding year as a closer (i AM all for that), so he can enter next year's free agent market and get highest bidder bling. it worked so well for kevin millwood in 2005, keith must figure he cannot loose. the difference, kevin is (reported to be) a good guy. i have read in previous years that keith is not. the stories i read years back stated that keith is a loner and plays only for himself. he cares jack squat about the team he plays for and his teammates. in general, he is a jerk. ok, I KNOW NEITHER GUY. i am strictly regurgitating what i have read. i cannot reveal my sources, as i cannot remember them. but keith was practically kicked out of chi-town, and that says alot (to me anyways:). he saved 76 games in two years for them, then lost his job in 2002. the trade to the a's occurred the following off season. he then joined a long list of players who have left oakland for much, much greener pastures, er paydays.

a semi interesting side note. in 1997, keith was invovled in a trade that also involved bob howry and roberto hernandez.

my point is: he has talent, but chemistry IS important also. then again, the tribe only notched 24 saves (yes, as a team) last year. this could be the rare case where the jerk factor cannot touch the what-can-you do-for-me-this-year factor. right now, on paper, our defense is the only thing that could conceivably hold us down. of course, paper and reality are often two majorly different things. ask the yankees.

as for all the other moves that went down with other teams: maybe later. i will state this: barry zito is NOT a staff ace, he just gets paid like one. it is funny, SF had an ace in jason schmidt, and 'let' him go to their heated rivals in LA. just because barry is filling jason's shoes doesn't mean SF will get jason-like results.

go tribe!

out